Mapping the spatial distribution of underutilised crop species under climate change using the MaxEnt model: A case of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Knowing the spatial and temporal suitability of neglected underutilised crop species (NUS) is important for fitting them into marginal production areas cropping systems under climate change. The current study used change scenarios to map future distribution selected NUS, namely, sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata amaranth Amaranthus ) taro Colocasia esculenta in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, South Africa. NUS was simulated using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model regional circulation models (RCMs) from CORDEX archive, each driven by different global (GCM), years 2030 2070. showed an increase 0.1–11.8% highly suitable (S1), moderately (S2), marginally (S3) sorghum, cowpea, growing 2070 across all RCPs. In contrast, total area projected decrease 0.3–9.78% jack-knife tests MaxEnt performed efficiently, with curve being more significant than 0.8. identified annual precipitation, length period, minimum temperature as variables contributing significantly predictions. developed maps indicate possible changes within KZN province. Understanding useful developing transformative adaptation strategies that consider distribution. It recommended develop regionally differentiated climate-smart agriculture guidelines matched variability suitability.